Thursday, December 15, 2016

Flow like rivers from the sky...

Mass oyster die-off in S.F. Bay related to atmospheric rivers
"Rivers in the sky

Atmospheric rivers, or “rivers in the sky,” are technically long, narrow corridors of concentrated moisture that travel the lower atmosphere. They can transport in the air seven to 15 times as much water flow as the Mississippi River. In California, atmospheric rivers have been known to deliver up to half of the state’s annual precipitation in just 10 to 15 days. They have also been linked to all seven declared floods on California’s Russian River between 1996 and 2007.

While atmospheric rivers are expected to increase, their unpredictable nature makes it difficult for researchers to collect ecological data before and after such extreme events."
Rivers come up in:
Boxer slams water bill rider backed by Feinstein

Boxer, Feinstein in angry split over new California water-bill plan

What is the message from UC Regents?
Jerry Brown strikes defiant tone: ‘California will launch its own damn satellite’
Sacramento Bee - 8 hours ago


"Something that seemed a little paranoid to me before all of a sudden seems potentially realistic, or at least something you’d want to hedge against,” said Nick Santos, an environmental researcher at the University of California at Davis, who over the weekend began copying government climate data onto a nongovernment server, where it will remain available to the public. “Doing this can only be a good thing. Hopefully they leave everything in place. But if not, we’re planning for that.”
See also:
"In September, the UCLA Anderson Forecast released its third quarterly outlook of 2016. Relying on polling data at that time, the report assumed that Hillary Clinton would be elected president of the United States.

But when Donald Trump was elected, the UCLA Anderson Forecast revised its prognostications for the national, state and local economies.

The national forecast

Writing on behalf of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, Senior Economist David Shulman makes the following policy assumptions, in what he labels a “first pass at Trumponomics.”

$300 billion per year in mostly higher-end personal tax cuts, effective in the third quarter.
$200 billion per year corporate tax cut, effective in the third quarter, with $50 billion of revenues associated with the repatriation of foreign earnings that quarter.
$20 billion per year infrastructure program, effective in the fourth quarter.
$20 billion more in defense spending in 2018.
$20 billion per year Medicaid/ACA cuts, effective in the fourth quarter.
Relaxed regulations of energy, environmental and financial policy.
Modest changes to immigration, except for a possible border wall or fence.
Modest changes to trade policy, yielding net reductions in food and aircraft exports starting in mid-2017.
Shulman writes that the net result of these policies would be “a massive fiscal stimulus on an economy at or very close to full employment.” He also notes that it is the direction that a host of liberal economists have been advocating for half a decade, although with a different mix of tax cuts and spending.

“Make no mistake, this is real or even reckless fiscal stimulus,” he writes. “The federal deficit will roughly double to over $1 trillion by 2018.”

Shulman goes on to write that in response to higher inflation and the exploding federal deficit, the long quiescent Fed will become more aggressive, raising the federal funds rate to over 2 percent by the end of 2017 and 3 percent by the end of 2018.

With $500 billion in tax cuts arriving in the third quarter of 2017, the forecast calls for GDP growth to accelerate from its recent 2 percent growth path to 3 percent for about four consecutive quarters and then slide back to 2 percent. Growth will be hampered by the difficulties of stimulating an economy operating at near full employment and the bite of higher interest rates. Employment will continue to grow on the order of 140,000 jobs per month in 2017 and 120,000 per month in 2018.

“To be sure, if the new administration follows through with its campaign rhetoric to engage in mass deportations, job growth and the economic activity associated with it would be far slower than what we forecast,” Shulman writes.

The details of the forecast fall into three categories: the good, the bad and the ugly. As for the “good,” Shulman writes that the economic growth envisioned will be powered by rising consumption along with equipment and defense spending. Real consumption spending is expected to increase 3 percent in 2017 and then 3.7 percent in 2018. After declining six years in a row, real defense spending is forecast to increase 0.8 percent in 2017 and 3.2 percent in 2018.

On the negative side, housing activity will be a casualty, as the"... - see full article
Flow like rivers through the sky J. Webb

Or go for the full HRC cake out in the rain...

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