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"If the University were a business, it would likely be the largest corporation in California."

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

some President of the UC Regents Recall Election Must Reads- and other things

 See:

first consider UC Berkeley's poll interplay with another poll and how polling and elections are discussed here:

"Newsom recall: How one poll changed the campaign | CalMatters"
https://calmatters.org/politics/2021/09/newsom-recall-poll-campaign/
see sections on:
..."First, there was a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll on July 27, which showed that likely voters were just about evenly split on whether or not Gov. Gavin Newsom deserves to keep his job. 

A few days later came an even more alarming set of figures from SurveyUSA"..."The widely monitored poll average at FiveThirtyEight snapped from the “no” on recall campaign leading by 7 percentage points to a tie. "...

In summary

The early August survey suggested Gov. Gavin Newsom would get ousted — and scared Democrats and progressives into ramping up their efforts. ...

The panic started to set in for California Democrats in the last week of July.

First, there was a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll on July 27, which showed that likely voters were just about evenly split on whether or not Gov. Gavin Newsom deserves to keep his job. 

A few days later came an even more alarming set of figures from SurveyUSA: A majority of likely voters, 51%, wanted to fire Newsom, compared to a mere 40% who did not. It came at a pivotal moment in the chaotic recall, just hours before the first televised debate. And it showed the power of polls — not just to offer a snapshot of the race, but to shape it.    

This one poll upended the conventional wisdom that pundits and political consultants had been spouting for months: The Democratic governor of the reliably Democratic state had little reason to fear the Sept. 14 recall. “Shock poll shows Gavin Newsom losing recall vote by double digits,” read one headline. The widely monitored poll average at FiveThirtyEight snapped from the “no” on recall campaign leading by 7 percentage points to a tie. With a relative scarcity of large statewide polls, that single survey “kind of swung the numbers a lot,” polling guru Nate Silver said in a podcast last week.

For California Democrats, the prospect of Newsom succumbing to a conservative-led recall campaign was the stuff of nightmares.   

But it was also exactly what Newsom and the “no” campaign needed to rouse liberal-leaning voters. They immediately blasted out the bad news like a statistical bat signal for apathetic Democrats.   

“This recall is close,” read the fundraising email to supporters on Aug. 5, the day after the SurveyUSA poll was released. “Close enough to start thinking about what it’d be like if we had a Republican Governor in California. Sorry to put the thought in your head, but it’s true.”

Only maybe it wasn’t.

In its next poll, released at the end of August, SurveyUSA issued a mea culpa in a memo addendum that said the prior poll may have misworded a question and inadvertently inflated the “yes” on recall numbers. "...

and then UC thoughts in it:
“There are two ways in which the polls, potentially, not only reflected but shaped the campaign: One was through this creation of crisis, which motivated Gavin Newsom’s donors, his political allies and his base,” said UC San Diego political scientist Thad Kousser."
"“The second and perhaps more important thing was the polls over the past month have made it clear that Larry Elder would be the next governor, if the recall is successful. Since then Gavin Newsom seems to be gaining ground. Those two facts are not unrelated.”"
...
"A contrarian story’

UCLA political scientist and public opinion researcher Matt Barreto is happy to knock other pollsters for their work on the recall (“It was conducted by drunk clowns,” he said of an August Emerson College survey that showed a close race). 

But he also said the media deserves some blame for mischaracterizing the state of the race earlier in the summer. 

“People in your industry don’t put any effort into it,” he told CalMatters. “A really poor quality poll comes out…and you think, ‘This is a contrarian story, let’s start repeating this!’ Instead, people should have looked at it and laughed it out of their news feed.”"...

-- And, these polls getting mixed together in the narrative,

" The Berkeley poll also takes into account a voter’s reported interest in the race and their past history of participation. The Public Policy Institute of California, another prominent pollster" ..."The new UC Berkeley poll, which found the recall trailing by double digits, looked like a return to “normal” California politics, pollster Mark DiCamillo said in a panel discussion on Friday. "...

https://news.berkeley.edu/2021/09/10/newsom-opens-solid-lead-in-california-recall-says-new-berkeley-igs-poll/

--But not everyone follows nuance of panel discussion - when coverage signals polls being viewed as  props or instruments to game for turnout: 

"Though Republicans, and therefore “yes” voters, are more likely to vote in person on Tuesday, as they did in November 2020, “the recall needs a big red shift,” said Political Data vice president Paul Mitchell. “At some point this becomes a math problem….A high-turnout election ensures that Newsom beats this.”

Not that the Newsom campaign is taking anything for granted. The California Democratic Party tweeted Friday: “Ignore the polls.” After all, it knows as well as anyone what happens when voters begin to take the polls seriously."

- and so getting tangled up in that  - is that a good look for Cal research?
__

"California recall 2021: Three ways the election could go | CalMatters"
https://calmatters.org/politics/2021/09/california-recall-election-day-scenarios/

"How The California Recall Became A Real Threat To Democratic Power | HuffPost"
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/gavin-newsom-california-recall-real-threat-democrats_n_613fd807e4b09519c508721a
this, as well, is going to have to be looked at as 2022 sets things rolling all over again:
..."The ambivalence of Latino voters toward Newsom has been a particular source of concern and confusion for Democrats. A little over a month ago, an Emerson College poll showed that Latinos were the only racial group in which a narrow majority of voters are supportive of the recall. 

Those numbers have shifted dramatically in just a few weeks with a new Emerson poll conducted on Friday and Saturday showing two-thirds of Latinos opposed to the recall. "...

____
there is this coverage of :
"“The University was required to either recognize the petitioned-for unit, or deny recognition based on the reasons enumerated under PERB Regulation 51080(d)(3),” PERB wrote. “Because the University failed to recognize the petitioned-for unit, PERB must treat the University’s September 2, 2021, response as a denial of recognition pursuant to PERB Regulation 51080(d).”  Paul, Plevin, Sullivan & Connaughton LLP labels itself “one of California’s top management-side labor and employment law firms.”  The firm’s website recently lauded “union avoidance” but has since changed wording.  In emails with a UC spokesperson prior to Sept. 2, the university did not verify that it was working with the firm.  The next step available to Student Researchers United is to petition for a PERB investigation, which must be filed within 90 days of the university’s response.  The researchers first filed for recognition May 24, and the unit spans all UC campuses and 17,000 student researchers."
  PERB rules University of CA rejected researchers union - Santa Barbara News-Press
https://newspress.com/perb-rules-university-of-ca-rejected-researchers-union/

this other thing is about that  opt outs  move on one UC campus apparently??:
https://www.law.com/therecorder/2021/09/13/hanson-bridgett-leonard-carder-defend-university-of-california-president-in-proposed-class-action-over-alleged-union-resignation-barriers/?slreturn=20210813230429
___
UCOP grabbing at rankings games coverage: https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-scores-top-spots-us-news-world-report-s-2022-university-rankings

UCLA and US News etc: https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/ucla-5-years-no-1-public-university-us-news-world-report-2022

As here earlier  pointed to on his first part of this series -here now is the second part of a series, and it sticks to focusing on the UCs again, see:
"Opinion | Why the SAT May be the Best Option - The Case Against ‘Excellence’ at Universities- The New York Times"
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/13/opinion/SAT-universities-admissions.html

also there's : https://blogs.berkeley.edu/2021/09/13/why-uc-berkeley-not-harvard-is-americas-top-college/

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